FOREIGN POOL REPORT #1 - BACKGROUND

Good morning,

I will be your foreign pooler for the visits of Nikol Pashinyan, Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia, and Ilham Aliyev, President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, to the White House today.

Today’s meetings at the White House are part of a diplomatic push to take serious steps towards a peace treaty which would end nearly four decades of conflict between the two south Caucasus nations. It is also part of the president’s efforts to bring about an end to international conflicts.

White House Itinerary

2:30 PM THE PRESIDENT greets the Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia (Stake-out Location / Open Press)

2:35 PM THE PRESIDENT Participates in a bilateral meeting with the Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia (Oval office / White House Press Pool)

3:05 PM THE PRESIDENT Participates in a Bilateral Signing with the Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia (Cabinet Room /Closed Press)

3:10 PM THE PRESIDENT greets the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan (Stake-out location /Open Press)

3:15 PM THE PRESIDENT Participates in a Bilateral Meeting with the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan (Oval Office /White House Press Pool)

3:45 PM THE PRESIDENT Participates in a Bilateral Signing with the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan (Cabinet Room/Closed Press)

4:15 PM THE PRESIDENT participates in a trilateral signing with the Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia and the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan (State Dining Room / White House Press Pool)

Background on the conflict

The two former Soviet republics have been at loggerheads since the late 1980s when Nagorno-Karabakh - an Azerbaijani region with a mostly ethnic-Armenian population - broke away from Azerbaijan with support from Armenia.

The First Karabakh War (1988-1994) saw more than 30,000 people killed and more than a million displaced. Armenia ended up in control of Nagorno-Karabakh itself as well as swathes of seven surrounding districts.

After decades of intermittent skirmishes, Azerbaijan began a military operation in 2020 that became the Second Karabakh War. It won a decisive victory in 44 days, taking back the seven districts and about a third of Nagorno-Karabakh itself.

In September 2023, Azerbaijani forces launched a new offensive against Karabakh, which quickly agreed to a ceasefire and capitulated to Baku. Almost all the remaining 100,000 or so Armenians in the region fled to Armenia as refugees.

Key Topics on the Agenda

1. Peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan:

Yesterday President Trump wrote on Truth that today’s meeting will be a “historic peace summit”. Pashinyan and Aliyev met for negotiations in Abu Dhabi last month, though no resolution was announced. The two sides said in March they had agreed on the text of a draft peace agreement, but obstacles remained. Today they will sign a joint declaration - a “peace roadmap” - committing to a peace deal, rather than a full peace agreement. A US senior administration official said that it is “the first peace declaration signed by the two countries after the end of the Cold War”. Armenia intends to announce U.S. development rights to a transit route to be called the "Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP)” (Formerly referred to as the Zangezur corridor): a proposed transit route that would run roughly 43 km (26 miles) through Armenia and link Azerbaijani territory with Nakhchivan, an Azerbaijani exclave situated between Armenia and Turkey. The control, the potential routes and

even the name of the corridor have been points of contention. Russia and Iran have also expressed their concern about this corridor. A US senior administration official pointed out that Trump “changed the language” and “takes the politics out of the picture” so that “commercial prosperity will ensure peace”.

The TRIPP would provide unimpeded commercial access for Azerbaijan from its mainland to Nakhchivan, while maintaining Armenia’s legal control over the territory. TRIPP is being framed as a commercial rather than military or security project.

The two countries will also sign a joint letter withdrawing their countries from the OSCE Minsk Group. The mediation format, co-chaired by Russia, France, and the United States since 1997 is viewed as ineffective in resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. There are remaining obstacles for peace, including: Azerbaijan demands for Armenia to eliminate language from its Constitution that may be interpreted as territorial claims, as well as Armenia’s demand for the release of its prisoners in Azerbaijan, and the official demarcation of the borders between the two countries. The Biden administration had also tried to bring the parties closer to a treaty.

1. Bilateral priorities: economic partnership, energy and infrastructure development. Trump will sign bilateral agreements with both countries. On August 7 Aliyev also met with Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, after the signing of a memorandum of cooperation between SOCAR (State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic) and ExxonMobil.

Strategic Significance

• Increasing US influence in the South Caucasus through the Middle Corridor, a transport route that connects China to Europe through Central Asia and the South Caucasus. This route supports US plans to build alternative trade paths that avoid Russia and Iran. A peace deal could transform the South Caucasus.
• U.S. officials believe a peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan could prompt negotiations on the entry of Azerbaijan into the Abraham Accords. Azerbaijan already has a close strategic relationship with Israel on defense, energy, and trade. In 2023 Azerbaijan opened an embassy in Israel. Joining the Abraham Accords is not an easy decision: it could increase tensions with Iran; not all countries in the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (of which Baku is a part) support the Abraham Accords.
• The peace talks are seen as a precursor to further progress in Turkey-Armenia relations. Turkey and Armenia are currently engaged in the process of normalizing relations, including the potential reopening of their shared border, which has been closed since the 1990s.

Trump's involvement

Ahead of his election, Trump vowed in an October 2024 Truth Social post to “protect persecuted Christians,” and blasted his opponent Kamala Harris for doing “NOTHING as 120,000 Armenian Christians were horrifically persecuted and forcibly displaced.” Trump said he would “work to stop the violence and ethnic cleansing, and we will restore PEACE between Armenia and Azerbaijan.”

In February-March Witkoff traveled to Azerbaijan and met with Aliyev, followed by other 4-5 visits by US officials in Azerbaijan and Armenia.

In February Pashinyan met with US Vice President JD Vance in Washington.

Viviana Mazza

US Correspondent

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